April 2022 Insights

Market volatility continues, as an ever-increasing list of factors are impacting on the global macro (and micro) environment. In addition to inflation, interest rates, the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China are also impacting key transport logistics and supply / demand dynamics. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and a significant global power, so …

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March 2022 Insights

The market has rallied during the month, as the endless battle between fear and greed continues. On the positive (greed) side, the recent reporting season highlighted very robust company earnings resulting in a record $246 billion sitting in company bank accounts. The dividends being paid during March and April amount to $36 billion, a record. …

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February 2022 Insights

The past month has seen most ASX-listed businesses report first half (FY22) numbers, broadly demonstrating strong corporate earnings in nearly every sector. The rate of companies beating expectations is currently at 55%, versus 33% historically. Only 14% of companies have missed analyst forecasts. A particular highlight being the ability of high-quality businesses to pass through …

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January 2022 Insights

After a strong start to 2022, markets globally have become volatile with inflation rising above expectations, leading to the potential for earlier interest rate rises. Unprofitable businesses feel the greatest impact of rising interest rates on their valuations, as their cost of funding rises. This is not to say that quality profitable (defensive) businesses will …

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December 2021 Insights

The ASX200 index is up about 12% for 2021, or 16% when including dividends and capital returns. Very low interest rates, government spending and improved household savings has resulted in a boom for the economy and asset prices (shares and property in particular). A world-beating vaccination rate and consumer confidence has seen a transition to …

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November 2021 Insights

The past month has seen the market trade with increased volatility, recently due to a new COVID strain, ending with little net movement in the index. Global growth remains well above trend, although central back monetary policy (interest rates) remains at a level that would indicate a recession or worse. It appears the Australian Federal …

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October 2021 Insights

The September slump had a number of commentators concerned about falling markets, however, they have recently been moving up, largely due to an excellent quarterly earnings season in the USA; a few highlights below: FORD ($0.51 v. $0.27cps expected) McDonalds ($2.76 v. $2.46 expected) Alphabet ($27.99 v. $23.48 expected) AMD ($0.73 versus $0.67 expected) Microsoft …

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September 2021 Insights

September was an eventful month providing much to consider for those speculating on short-term market movements. Domestically, the reopening trade continues to gain traction as we have a semblance of a roadmap out of COVID-19 and vaccination rates improve. Government spending continues at pace and interest rates remain low regardless of a robust economy and …

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August 2021 Insights

The past month has seen many ASX listed companies report FY20/21 results. On average, about 40% have beaten forecasts, 40% were in-line and only 20% reported earnings that were below expectations. Government spending and accommodative interest rates continue regardless of a strong economy, and companies reporting positive results. Corporate balance sheets are strong, private sector …

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June 2021 Insights

We come to the end of another unusual financial year. Over the years we have encouraged investors to avoid predicting markets, and understand the shares they own are real, operating businesses. Commensurately, the long-term success of the investment will be predicated on the success of the underlying business. In the short-term the success of the …

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