December 2021 Insights

The ASX200 index is up about 12% for 2021, or 16% when including dividends and capital returns. Very low interest rates, government spending and improved household savings has resulted in a boom for the economy and asset prices (shares and property in particular). A world-beating vaccination rate and consumer confidence has seen a transition to …

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November 2021 Insights

The past month has seen the market trade with increased volatility, recently due to a new COVID strain, ending with little net movement in the index. Global growth remains well above trend, although central back monetary policy (interest rates) remains at a level that would indicate a recession or worse. It appears the Australian Federal …

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October 2021 Insights

The September slump had a number of commentators concerned about falling markets, however, they have recently been moving up, largely due to an excellent quarterly earnings season in the USA; a few highlights below: FORD ($0.51 v. $0.27cps expected) McDonalds ($2.76 v. $2.46 expected) Alphabet ($27.99 v. $23.48 expected) AMD ($0.73 versus $0.67 expected) Microsoft …

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September 2021 Insights

September was an eventful month providing much to consider for those speculating on short-term market movements. Domestically, the reopening trade continues to gain traction as we have a semblance of a roadmap out of COVID-19 and vaccination rates improve. Government spending continues at pace and interest rates remain low regardless of a robust economy and …

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August 2021 Insights

The past month has seen many ASX listed companies report FY20/21 results. On average, about 40% have beaten forecasts, 40% were in-line and only 20% reported earnings that were below expectations. Government spending and accommodative interest rates continue regardless of a strong economy, and companies reporting positive results. Corporate balance sheets are strong, private sector …

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June 2021 Insights

We come to the end of another unusual financial year. Over the years we have encouraged investors to avoid predicting markets, and understand the shares they own are real, operating businesses. Commensurately, the long-term success of the investment will be predicated on the success of the underlying business. In the short-term the success of the …

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July 2021 Insights

The past month has been disruptive for many readers, who have been subject to lockdowns. We hope you have been managing well during this period.   An eagerly anticipated reporting season commences in August, with most ASX listed companies reporting FY21 numbers. We anticipate robust earnings results reflecting the ‘V-shaped’ recovery of the economy given (1) …

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May 2021 Insights

During May, the market was broadly flat. The outlook for the domestic economy appears robust: Household and corporate balance sheets are strong. Elevated retail spending. 20-year high job vacancy rate should result in lower unemployment. Australian government debt remains manageable. Interest rates are at record lows. Business forward orders recently reached multi-decade highs; and Strong …

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April 2021 Insights

Much has been made of the market hitting all-time highs recently; accompanied by the normal predictions of pending catastrophe. Many great investors have discussed the folly in making market predictions.  Amongst the many comments on this exercise of looking into crystal balls is one from John Templeton: “The influence on stock prices are so numerous …

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March 2021 Insights

Two strong opinions have been at loggerheads recently: The first says, ‘the end of the world is nigh’, and that inflation, interest rates and unemployment are about to skyrocket. This prediction is often couched in terms of gloom and doom for markets. The second points to the US, which looks like spending over $9 TRILLION …

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