September 2021 Insights

September was an eventful month providing much to consider for those speculating on short-term market movements. Domestically, the reopening trade continues to gain traction as we have a semblance of a roadmap out of COVID-19 and vaccination rates improve. Government spending continues at pace and interest rates remain low regardless of a robust economy and …

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August 2021 Insights

The past month has seen many ASX listed companies report FY20/21 results. On average, about 40% have beaten forecasts, 40% were in-line and only 20% reported earnings that were below expectations. Government spending and accommodative interest rates continue regardless of a strong economy, and companies reporting positive results. Corporate balance sheets are strong, private sector …

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June 2021 Insights

We come to the end of another unusual financial year. Over the years we have encouraged investors to avoid predicting markets, and understand the shares they own are real, operating businesses. Commensurately, the long-term success of the investment will be predicated on the success of the underlying business. In the short-term the success of the …

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July 2021 Insights

The past month has been disruptive for many readers, who have been subject to lockdowns. We hope you have been managing well during this period.   An eagerly anticipated reporting season commences in August, with most ASX listed companies reporting FY21 numbers. We anticipate robust earnings results reflecting the ‘V-shaped’ recovery of the economy given (1) …

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May 2021 Insights

During May, the market was broadly flat. The outlook for the domestic economy appears robust: Household and corporate balance sheets are strong. Elevated retail spending. 20-year high job vacancy rate should result in lower unemployment. Australian government debt remains manageable. Interest rates are at record lows. Business forward orders recently reached multi-decade highs; and Strong …

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April 2021 Insights

Much has been made of the market hitting all-time highs recently; accompanied by the normal predictions of pending catastrophe. Many great investors have discussed the folly in making market predictions.  Amongst the many comments on this exercise of looking into crystal balls is one from John Templeton: “The influence on stock prices are so numerous …

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March 2021 Insights

Two strong opinions have been at loggerheads recently: The first says, ‘the end of the world is nigh’, and that inflation, interest rates and unemployment are about to skyrocket. This prediction is often couched in terms of gloom and doom for markets. The second points to the US, which looks like spending over $9 TRILLION …

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February 2021 Insights

In February most ASX listed businesses reported numbers for the first half of Financial Year 2021. Results have been very positive with earnings upgrades, higher dividends and strong cash generation, an outcome few predicted this time last year. In January 2020 (pre-COVID) the market was rightly concerned about low growth, high household debt levels and …

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January 2021 Insights

2020 was a watershed year, and perhaps one of the greatest examples of the futility in predicting the future direction of the stock market. 2021 brings the usual cavalcade of those predicting the market to double or halve; regular readers will know what to do with these predictions. One of the most frequent questions we …

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December 2020 Insights

In a year which few are likely to forget, the market continued to provide salient lessons. Given the extra risk in the system, the recession, the likely diminution in profits, forecast increases in unemployment and general unrest, one would have predicted a dire share-market, and perhaps justifiably so. However, the great investors in history often …

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