Insights

The past 12 month have been another period of tail events materialising. As we learned to ‘live with COVID’, the impact of stimulus has been felt on the economy and the market. Along with supply-side tightness, including in energy markets and broader supply chains, demand has been strong as consumers shift from buying goods (requiring […]

The swings in the market continued during the month, with a net flat performance in equities during the period. This is, perhaps, another reason for taking a step back from day-to-day share price movements and focus on the long-term. Much angst can be avoided along with emotions that negatively impact rational investing. Of note, the

Central Bank tightening policies have escalated during the past month, and rising interest rates are impacting asset prices. The following chart displays interest rate movements in the US 10 Year Bond over the past 40 years, a long-term downward trend. The US 10 Year Bond Yield is the most actively traded interest rate vehicle in

Most ASX listed companies reported FY22 numbers during the month, with earnings beating analyst estimated only slightly. However, earnings estimated have been downgraded as a function of softening global growth. ASX reporting season beats vs misses (ASX200)   Central bank movements (interest rates) are impacting markets more so than underlying company fundamentals, as witnessed with

Markets went up 4% in July, following a weak end to the 2022 financial year. Volume in the market has been very low, as investors await reporting season to ascertain the impact of rising labour, energy and funding costs. For the first time in 10 years or more inflation, rising interest rates and how central

Rising inflation and interest rates globally have impacted markets, with both equity and bond markets dropping to adjust for the rate rise, increasing the return on cash (risk-free rate of return). The ASX is down about 10% for the month (at time of writing). Signs of inflation have been clear for some time, and well

The month of May provided much to consider. The election result had little bearing on the Australian market, as the key drivers appear to be global macro-driven capital flows as a function of forecast inflation and interest rates. Overall, the market was down -2.5% this month and broadly in-line with global movements. The high growth

Market volatility continues, as an ever-increasing list of factors are impacting on the global macro (and micro) environment. In addition to inflation, interest rates, the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China are also impacting key transport logistics and supply / demand dynamics. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and a significant global power, so

The market has rallied during the month, as the endless battle between fear and greed continues. On the positive (greed) side, the recent reporting season highlighted very robust company earnings resulting in a record $246 billion sitting in company bank accounts. The dividends being paid during March and April amount to $36 billion, a record.

The past month has seen most ASX-listed businesses report first half (FY22) numbers, broadly demonstrating strong corporate earnings in nearly every sector. The rate of companies beating expectations is currently at 55%, versus 33% historically. Only 14% of companies have missed analyst forecasts. A particular highlight being the ability of high-quality businesses to pass through