During May, the market was broadly flat. The outlook for the domestic economy appears robust: Household and corporate balance sheets are strong. Elevated retail spending. 20-year high job vacancy rate should result in lower unemployment. Australian government debt remains manageable. Interest rates are at record lows. Business forward orders recently reached multi-decade highs; and Strong …
Much has been made of the market hitting all-time highs recently; accompanied by the normal predictions of pending catastrophe. Many great investors have discussed the folly in making market predictions. Amongst the many comments on this exercise of looking into crystal balls is one from John Templeton: “The influence on stock prices are so numerous …
Two strong opinions have been at loggerheads recently: The first says, ‘the end of the world is nigh’, and that inflation, interest rates and unemployment are about to skyrocket. This prediction is often couched in terms of gloom and doom for markets. The second points to the US, which looks like spending over $9 TRILLION …
In February most ASX listed businesses reported numbers for the first half of Financial Year 2021. Results have been very positive with earnings upgrades, higher dividends and strong cash generation, an outcome few predicted this time last year. In January 2020 (pre-COVID) the market was rightly concerned about low growth, high household debt levels and …
2020 was a watershed year, and perhaps one of the greatest examples of the futility in predicting the future direction of the stock market. 2021 brings the usual cavalcade of those predicting the market to double or halve; regular readers will know what to do with these predictions. One of the most frequent questions we …
In a year which few are likely to forget, the market continued to provide salient lessons. Given the extra risk in the system, the recession, the likely diminution in profits, forecast increases in unemployment and general unrest, one would have predicted a dire share-market, and perhaps justifiably so. However, the great investors in history often …
Over the past 10-or-so months, many investors have sold the businesses they own for various reasons, including: Potential supply shock out of China Hospitals overrun due to covid Trump may get re-elected Biden may get elected There may be a stand-off after the election Interest rates may rise Interest rates may fall $A may rise …
The unusual paradigm in which markets have lived in the past 9 months continues unabated. The normal drivers of individual company performance (predominantly profits) are being largely ignored by the market and replaced by companies with an exciting ‘story’. The macro direction of markets is driven largely by stimulus and low interest rates with very …
The past month saw more consolidation in the market and ended broadly flat. The arm wrestle between in economic impacts of the COVID-19 response and central bank stimulus continues, with many and varied predictions about as to the outcome. In aggregate, corporate profits are linked to economic growth, and economic growth is significantly correlated to …
The month saw most ASX listed companies report FY20 numbers, with 75% of companies reporting a profit. This is the weakest outcome in a decade, but encouraging given the economic backdrop. On aggregate, earnings have fallen 37%. Some stand-out sectors are: Gold – strong demand and record prices as investors sort a hedge against …
