This year amplified the difficulty in predicting markets and the frailties of the human condition on short-term reactions to an art/science which requires long-term thinking. At the start of 2023 the outlooks for the Australian share market were almost unanimous in predictions of doom. One must feel for the poor investors who sold based on …
The ASX has risen approximately 3% in November, following a negative October, ending in a relatively flat position over the past two months. By way of comparison, the US S&P500 is up about +10% for the month of November. In $AUD terms the US market is up about 4% for the month of November after …
The market has drifted sideways, which may indicate a level of desensitisation towards geopolitical issues, particularly the issue of war and suffering. Cautious investing is appropriate in this instance, as it is in most circumstances. Economic indicators suggest inflationary pressures remain, regardless of central banks increasing interest rates. In the US, retail sales have increased …
The past month has seen the market drift sideways, which was beneficial to investors as many companies went ex-dividend following FY23 reporting season. In fact, there is about $43bn of cash due to be paid out in dividends during September and October. Company share prices tend to drop on ex-dividend date by roughly the quantum …
During the past month, many ASX-listed businesses reported FY23 earnings. So far, there have been a relatively even spread of ‘beats’ versus ‘misses’. The share price movements have been significant post-reporting, both on the up and down side. The companies that have performed well have demonstrated strong margins and earnings. Surprisingly, discretionary retail has outperformed …
The ASX rose 3% during July, as US inflation pressures continued to ease, providing the catalyst for the US market to rise and for the ASX to follow. US inflation has fallen from 9.1% to 3% in the past 12 months, with indicators predicting this to continue. Notably, many of the inflation inputs which declined …
The market surprised many with its resilience during the month, against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy and cost of living pressures. The cash position held by fund managers is at all-time highs, as is the net short position held by hedge funds. Clearly, many investors are anticipating a drop in the market. As is …
During the month the ASX200 was relatively flat as investors focused on events in the US. The US inflation rate fell from 8.4% to 4.5%, which may result in the US Federal Reserve reducing the velocity of rate rises or leaving rates unchanged. Any curtailment of rate rises should positively impact the share market as …
Since October last year, the All-Ordinaries Index has appreciated 15%, the Nasdaq is up a similar amount, whilst the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are up by approximately 10%. Last September there was “mayhem” in UK markets, bond yields were soaring, interest rates were rising, inflation was a headline news item, and most commentators predicted …
During March, the ASX dropped about 4.8%, or 4.3% when adding back dividends. The conversation has moved from inflation and interest rate rises, to banking liquidity and confidence in the financial system. Interestingly, whilst the banking issues have been limited to the US and Europe, the share markets in these regions have risen. A reason …
