During March, the ASX dropped about 4.8%, or 4.3% when adding back dividends. The conversation has moved from inflation and interest rate rises, to banking liquidity and confidence in the financial system. Interestingly, whilst the banking issues have been limited to the US and Europe, the share markets in these regions have risen. A reason …
During February most ASX listed companies reported financial results to the end of December 2022, with reported numbers, overall, slightly underperforming expectations. Company guidance for future earnings was also below expectations, with about 60% of companies downgrading guidance by an average of ~1.5%. The impacts of COVID-19 are now winding down and the market anticipates …
January Insights January was a strong month in the market. The ASX200 index has risen approximately 7%. Short-term market movements are unpredictable given the confluence of many variables. In the last quarter of calendar year 2022, the perceived risks to the market led to a discount in share prices, as sellers gravitated to cash and …
The past 12 month have been another period of tail events materialising. As we learned to ‘live with COVID’, the impact of stimulus has been felt on the economy and the market. Along with supply-side tightness, including in energy markets and broader supply chains, demand has been strong as consumers shift from buying goods (requiring …
The swings in the market continued during the month, with a net flat performance in equities during the period. This is, perhaps, another reason for taking a step back from day-to-day share price movements and focus on the long-term. Much angst can be avoided along with emotions that negatively impact rational investing. Of note, the …
Central Bank tightening policies have escalated during the past month, and rising interest rates are impacting asset prices. The following chart displays interest rate movements in the US 10 Year Bond over the past 40 years, a long-term downward trend. The US 10 Year Bond Yield is the most actively traded interest rate vehicle in …
Most ASX listed companies reported FY22 numbers during the month, with earnings beating analyst estimated only slightly. However, earnings estimated have been downgraded as a function of softening global growth. ASX reporting season beats vs misses (ASX200) Central bank movements (interest rates) are impacting markets more so than underlying company fundamentals, as witnessed with …
Markets went up 4% in July, following a weak end to the 2022 financial year. Volume in the market has been very low, as investors await reporting season to ascertain the impact of rising labour, energy and funding costs. For the first time in 10 years or more inflation, rising interest rates and how central …
Rising inflation and interest rates globally have impacted markets, with both equity and bond markets dropping to adjust for the rate rise, increasing the return on cash (risk-free rate of return). The ASX is down about 10% for the month (at time of writing). Signs of inflation have been clear for some time, and well …
The month of May provided much to consider. The election result had little bearing on the Australian market, as the key drivers appear to be global macro-driven capital flows as a function of forecast inflation and interest rates. Overall, the market was down -2.5% this month and broadly in-line with global movements. The high growth …
