The ASX rose 3% during July, as US inflation pressures continued to ease, providing the catalyst for the US market to rise and for the ASX to follow. US inflation has fallen from 9.1% to 3% in the past 12 months, with indicators predicting this to continue. Notably, many of the inflation inputs which declined …
The market surprised many with its resilience during the month, against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy and cost of living pressures. The cash position held by fund managers is at all-time highs, as is the net short position held by hedge funds. Clearly, many investors are anticipating a drop in the market. As is …
During the month the ASX200 was relatively flat as investors focused on events in the US. The US inflation rate fell from 8.4% to 4.5%, which may result in the US Federal Reserve reducing the velocity of rate rises or leaving rates unchanged. Any curtailment of rate rises should positively impact the share market as …
Since October last year, the All-Ordinaries Index has appreciated 15%, the Nasdaq is up a similar amount, whilst the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are up by approximately 10%. Last September there was “mayhem” in UK markets, bond yields were soaring, interest rates were rising, inflation was a headline news item, and most commentators predicted …
During March, the ASX dropped about 4.8%, or 4.3% when adding back dividends. The conversation has moved from inflation and interest rate rises, to banking liquidity and confidence in the financial system. Interestingly, whilst the banking issues have been limited to the US and Europe, the share markets in these regions have risen. A reason …
During February most ASX listed companies reported financial results to the end of December 2022, with reported numbers, overall, slightly underperforming expectations. Company guidance for future earnings was also below expectations, with about 60% of companies downgrading guidance by an average of ~1.5%. The impacts of COVID-19 are now winding down and the market anticipates …
January Insights January was a strong month in the market. The ASX200 index has risen approximately 7%. Short-term market movements are unpredictable given the confluence of many variables. In the last quarter of calendar year 2022, the perceived risks to the market led to a discount in share prices, as sellers gravitated to cash and …
The past 12 month have been another period of tail events materialising. As we learned to ‘live with COVID’, the impact of stimulus has been felt on the economy and the market. Along with supply-side tightness, including in energy markets and broader supply chains, demand has been strong as consumers shift from buying goods (requiring …
The swings in the market continued during the month, with a net flat performance in equities during the period. This is, perhaps, another reason for taking a step back from day-to-day share price movements and focus on the long-term. Much angst can be avoided along with emotions that negatively impact rational investing. Of note, the …
Central Bank tightening policies have escalated during the past month, and rising interest rates are impacting asset prices. The following chart displays interest rate movements in the US 10 Year Bond over the past 40 years, a long-term downward trend. The US 10 Year Bond Yield is the most actively traded interest rate vehicle in …
